The Champions League lights go back on this week, and the road to Madrid starts with a familiar question: can anyone prise the trophy away from Paris St-Germain?
On 5 June next year, the final returns to the Spanish capital. Between now and then, Europe’s elite will test PSG’s grip on a competition they have bent to their will for two straight seasons. A third? That would be historic. It would also, according to one of our experts, border on impossible.
Can PSG really do the three-peat?
Julien Laurens does not dance around it.
“If PSG do the three-peat, it would be an incredible achievement. I don't think they will do it,” he says. Two in a row, he argues, already puts them in rare air. Three is the territory of dynasties – and of Cristiano Ronaldo, who is not in this squad.
Laurens still expects them to go deep. Semi-finals at least. The core remains, the experience is there, and they know how to manage the new league phase. But the sheer weight of history, the mental toll of defending a crown twice over, leads him to draw a line before the final.
Guillem Balague sees the strain too, but from a different angle. PSG’s start to the season has been uneven, a side wrestling with the demands of Luis Enrique’s high-octane vision.
“With PSG's irregular start to the season we are seeing how difficult it is to maintain the level,” Balague says. The coach is pushing them to live on the edge: dynamic football, relentless pressure, constant risk. The league phase, in his eyes, becomes a laboratory. A place to experiment, to absorb “strange results” before the real judgement arrives from January onwards.
The spine is strong enough, he insists, that PSG will “get very close to winning it again”. The champions are wounded, not broken.
Arsenal, Bayern and the threat from Spain
If PSG wobble, who steps in? For Laurens, the answer is clear: Arsenal.
He sees a team that has grown from last season’s heartbreak, a side that defended better than anyone in Europe and has kept that steel. “They have the best defence in Europe by far and that's what wins you titles,” he argues. The Gunners, runners-up last year, are his pick to go one better and lift the trophy.
He sketches out a final of heavyweights: Bayern Munich against Arsenal. Bayern, he says, have “deserved to be there the most” alongside PSG and Arsenal over the last two seasons. The Germans, in his view, fall just short – “close runners-up” – while PSG settle for a place in the last four.
Balague’s bracket looks similar but with a Spanish twist. Arsenal, he notes, have “found a way to win regularly”, and that change in psychology frees their players to express themselves more. That should carry them to the semi-finals.
PSG, again, are pencilled in for the last four. The third semi-final spot, in his mind, belongs to a resurgent Barcelona.
“Barcelona are flying,” he says. Hansi Flick still wants another centre-back and a number nine to complete the puzzle, but he already feels they are climbing towards the summit. Flick’s aggressive, high defensive line is designed to let his attackers shine, and Balague sees a team surging in the right direction.
The final semi-final place? That, he believes, will be fought over by Bayern, Real Madrid and Manchester City – “draw permitting”, as always in this competition.
The stars to watch
A Champions League season is never just about the trophy. It’s about the players who bend nights to their will.
Laurens picks out five.
- First on his list: Jude Bellingham. The England midfielder enters a pivotal year at Real Madrid, now under Jose Mourinho, operating in a number 10 role that Laurens believes fits him perfectly. After a standout World Cup, the expectation is that he carries that momentum into Europe, scoring heavily and deciding big games.
- Then there is Nico Paz at Como, the creative heartbeat of one of the tournament’s most intriguing newcomers. It is Como’s first appearance in the Champions League, with Cesc Fabregas on the touchline and a bold, entertaining style. Paz, wearing number 10, sits at the centre of it all. “Very much in the making,” Laurens says, but destined to be “a top player very soon”.
- He labels Khvicha Kvaratskhelia “Mr Champions League”. The Georgian winger has terrorised defences for PSG over the past two seasons, particularly from that left flank where he can cut inside or go wide, dangerous with either foot. He scores spectacular goals, he beats men, he drags viewers to the edge of their sofas. Laurens sees him firmly in the Ballon d’Or conversation.
- From France to Lens, where Ismaelo Ganiou anchors a side that pushed PSG all the way in Ligue 1 last year and now returns to the Champions League. Just 21, Ganiou is a powerful, rapid, ball-playing centre-back. Laurens expects this to be his final season at Lens before a move to a major Premier League club.
- His final pick is Donyell Malen. Since swapping Aston Villa for Roma, Malen has exploded as a lone striker under Gian Piero Gasperini, scoring at close to a goal per game. Roma’s return to the Champions League brings their attacking verve back to the biggest stage, and Laurens believes we will see Malen at his very best again.
Balague’s spotlight falls on another set of potential headliners.
- At Bayern, Harry Kane is on what he calls a “campaign to win the Ballon d'Or”. The England captain’s numbers and influence match the billing, and Balague sees no reason for his level to drop, given how well Bayern’s style fits him.
- At Barcelona, teenager Lamine Yamal is “hungry for more” and has fixed his gaze firmly on the Champions League. Flick’s demand for a team that defends high and with passion is designed to unleash Yamal in transition and in tight spaces. This, Balague suggests, is a stage the youngster is desperate to own.
- He echoes Laurens on Kvaratskhelia, convinced the PSG winger has “another level” to reach. With PSG expected to go far, Balague predicts Kvaratskhelia will again rescue them in key moments and win huge games. For him, the Georgian is a Ballon d’Or winner in waiting.
- Further east, Shakhtar’s latest Brazilian gem could be Kaua Elias. The Ukrainian club has long turned young Brazilian talent into major European transfers, and the 20-year-old forward, Balague says, could be next in that line.
- Back at Arsenal, Martin Odegaard is set for a different kind of season. After an injury-hit campaign last year, the Norwegian has started this one strongly. Balague sees a player capable of dictating matches again, and a team now confident enough to lean on his leadership.
New faces, old dreams
The Champions League always throws up fresh stories from the fringes. Balague is particularly drawn to Como and the work of Fabregas.
“I love what Fabregas is doing with Como and the fact he has decided to stay despite receiving interesting offers in the past two years,” he says. The Spaniard is building a side with the freedom to experiment, to make mistakes without fear, and to keep refining a modern, progressive style. Balague expects Como to reach the knock-out stages, a remarkable achievement for debutants.
LASK, who eliminated Celtic, have already shown their edge. Their first Champions League campaign, Balague believes, should be measured in moments: a home win somewhere, a respectable points tally. He does not see them qualifying from the league phase, but they have already announced themselves.
From Azerbaijan, Sabah enter on the back of a project built on organisation and structure. Their draw is brutal: trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, home dates against Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund. Balague predicts one or two surprise results, but not enough to carry them through.
Then there is Viking. The Norwegians face a daunting group with Bayern, Atletico, Napoli and Aston Villa, yet Balague refuses to write them off. Norwegian football, he points out, is full of smart, competitive coaches and players. In that environment, Viking could just scrap their way into the knock-outs.
The giants circle, the holders feel the weight of history, and the challengers sharpen their knives. Madrid awaits. Who dares believe this is their year?
