The Champions League’s new league phase has barely been drawn and already the numbers are telling a story. Thirty-six clubs, eight fixtures each, but no two schedules alike. This is not a fairground ride where everyone gets the same turn. Some have been handed a glide path. Others are staring at a gauntlet.
Opta’s power rankings – a global ladder of 16,000 teams on one scale – strip away the noise. They show who really won the draw.
Liverpool and Arsenal land the softest landings
Among the Premier League contingent, Liverpool emerge as the biggest winners. Their eight opponents carry an average rating of 90.0, the ninth-kindest list of fixtures in the entire competition. That matters.
They’ve drawn Atlético Madrid and Inter from pot one – on paper, the two most forgiving elite seeds available to English clubs. Dangerous names, yes, but not the kind of juggernauts that reshape a campaign on their own. Liverpool have also sidestepped the true super-heavyweights of Europe. No Real Madrid. No Bayern Munich. No Barcelona. For a side with ambitions of going deep, this is the sort of draw you quietly celebrate and publicly downplay.
Arsenal’s path looks very different, yet ends up in a similar place. The headline ties are brutal. Bayern Munich away. Real Madrid at home. These are as tough as pot-one fixtures get, the kind of nights that define a season and a manager.
Then the picture flips.
Beyond that elite layer, the undergrowth of their schedule is remarkably gentle. Arsenal have pulled Borussia Dortmund from pot two – the highest-ranked team in that band – but after that, the floor falls away. They’ve landed the two lowest-ranked sides in pot four: Sabah and Slovan Bratislava. Sabah sit 170th in the world, Slovan Bratislava 224th. No team in this season’s competition ranks lower.
So Arsenal’s draw is a split-screen. At the top end, it’s unforgiving. At the bottom, it’s as kind as the format allows. Survive the storms against Bayern, Madrid and Dortmund, and the rest of the route looks manageable for Mikel Arteta’s side.
Stuttgart and Inter see the door open
Outside England, Stuttgart can scarcely believe their luck. On Opta’s scale, no club has a gentler run. Their opponents average 88.9, the softest schedule of all 36 teams. For a side still re-establishing itself among Europe’s elite, this is an invitation to make a statement.
Inter are not far behind. The 2024-25 runners-up have been handed the second-easiest slate, with an average opponent rating of 89.5. That matters even more when you remember what happened last season. A shock playoff exit to Bodø/Glimt cut their campaign off before it really began.
This time, the route looks clearer. With this draw, Inter can realistically target a direct ticket to the last 16 and avoid the playoff trap altogether. After the embarrassment of that early exit, there will be little patience for another misstep.
Maresca’s Manchester City walk into a storm
At the other end of the spectrum stand Manchester City. For the first time in 11 years, they enter a Champions League season without Pep Guardiola on the touchline. Enzo Maresca steps into the role, and the draw has wasted no time in testing him.
City’s opponents average 91.7 on Opta’s scale. Only five clubs in the entire competition have it tougher. The names tell you why.
From pot one come Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain, two institutions built for this competition and all the scrutiny that comes with it. From pot three, Napoli – ranked 34th in the world – loom as a particularly awkward assignment. There are no soft edges here, no obvious resting points for a squad adjusting to a new voice and new ideas.
For Maresca, the league phase becomes an immediate examination. This is not a gentle handover. It is a stress test.
Villa’s memories, United’s reality
Aston Villa know all about the weight of a Champions League draw. They, too, have been paired with Barcelona and PSG from pot one, a brutal combination for any club outside the established elite.
There is history here. Villa Park still remembers that wild quarter-final second leg against PSG in 2024-25, when Villa won 3-2 on the night but went out 5-4 on aggregate. That tie announced Villa as serious European operators, even in defeat.
The landscape has shifted since then. The squad has undergone significant churn this summer, and the draw has not been sympathetic. From pot two, Villa have pulled the toughest possible pair: Club Brugge and Borussia Dortmund. Both are well-drilled, battle-hardened sides who know how to punish any looseness.
The lower pots offer some relief, but not enough to change the overall picture. Unai Emery’s European pedigree will be tested again. To repeat or surpass that 2024-25 run, he will have to knit a reshaped squad together at speed against some of the continent’s most coherent teams.
Manchester United return to the Champions League for the first time since 2023-24, and the memories are not fond. Four defeats in six, bottom of the group, an exit that underlined how far they had fallen.
This time, the draw is not catastrophic, but it leans towards the harsh side. Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid arrive from pot one – two clubs with deep European muscle memory and a habit of exposing any fragility.
From pot four, United have hit the worst possible outcome: Como, the toughest opponent available in that band. The middle layers are no easier. Sporting CP, ranked 21st in the world, and Roma, 22nd, promise tight, tactical contests. RB Leipzig (38th) and Villarreal (43rd) come from pot three – not the nightmare scenario, but nowhere near the best-case either.
There were kinder paths available. United did not find one. For a club still trying to reassert itself on this stage, there will be little margin for error.
Sabah, Slavia Prague and Lens feel the squeeze
At the very bottom of the seeding ladder, the numbers are merciless. Sabah, already the lowest-ranked team in the competition, emerge with the hardest fixture list of all. Slavia Prague, no strangers to punching above their weight in Europe, own the third-toughest schedule.
Lens sit between them as one of the draw’s big losers. The Ligue 1 side face opponents with an average rating of 92.1, a brutal assignment for a club still cementing its place among Europe’s middle class. Atlético Madrid are not far behind on 92.0, a reminder that even established names can be thrown into the deep end.
So the league phase begins with a familiar imbalance. Some clubs will talk about opportunity. Others will quietly curse the balls that came out of the bowl. The numbers are fixed now. The only question left is who will bend this draw to their will – and who will spend the autumn discovering just how unforgiving Europe’s new format can be.
