The Champions League is back. Madrid awaits on 5 June, and with it the question that frames every European season: who dares to take the trophy off Paris St-Germain?
PSG are chasing history. Two titles in a row already put them among the elite; a third would drag them into a different conversation altogether. But the mood among those who watch this competition closest is clear: the three‑peat might just be a step too far.
Arsenal, Bayern… and a PSG wall to climb
Julien Laurens does not mince his words on PSG’s chances.
“If PSG do the three-peat, it would be an incredible achievement. I don't think they will do it,” he says. Two straight titles, yes. Three? “Impossible unless you've got Cristiano Ronaldo in your team, which they don't.”
He still expects them to go deep. Semi-finals at least. The core of a champion remains, but the weight of history is heavy and every side in Europe has spent the summer plotting how to drag them down.
Laurens’ eyes are drawn elsewhere for the final. Bayern Munich and Arsenal. Two clubs who, in his view, “have deserved to be there the most in the past two seasons” outside PSG. One with the Champions League in its DNA, the other still nursing the sting of last season’s runners-up finish.
To win it all? He goes for Arsenal. Not because of romance, but because of numbers and structure. “They have the best defence in Europe by far and that's what wins you titles.” In his projected podium, PSG fall at the last four, Bayern as close runners-up, Arsenal finally climbing the last step.
Five English teams stand in PSG’s way, but it is Mikel Arteta’s side who carry the weight of Premier League expectation. Last year’s heartbreak has hardened them. Now they are seen not just as contenders, but as the side most likely to slam the door in PSG’s face.
PSG’s transition, Barcelona’s surge
Guillem Balague sees a different kind of tension around the champions. PSG’s start to the season has been “irregular”, and the strain of staying at the summit is already visible.
Luis Enrique keeps pushing, demanding dynamic football, relentless pressing, a team that lives on the edge tactically. The league phase, Balague argues, will double as a laboratory. A place to experiment, to absorb “strange results” before January, when the tournament hardens and every mistake cuts deeper.
The spine is still there, so he expects PSG “to get very close to winning it again”. But they are not alone in the fast lane.
“Barcelona are flying,” he notes. Hansi Flick wants another centre-back and a number nine to complete the picture, but the trajectory is unmistakable. Even without the final pieces, he “feels they are on the way to the top anyway”.
Arsenal, in Balague’s eyes, have crossed an important psychological line. They “have found a way to win regularly”, and with that burden lifted, their football should loosen, sharpen, become more expressive. Those three – PSG, Barcelona, Arsenal – “should be in the semis unless they meet before.”
The final place in the last four? That, he says, will fall to one of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid or Manchester City, draw permitting. No wildcards, no fairytales in his bracket. Just the usual heavyweights circling the latter stages again.
Bellingham, Paz and the stars about to explode
Laurens picks out five players who could shape this season’s narrative.
- Top of the list: Jude Bellingham. Already a symbol of Real Madrid’s future, now stepping into a defining season both for himself and for the club under Jose Mourinho. The number 10 role, Laurens believes, “suits him well”. After a “very good World Cup”, he expects the momentum to keep rolling: goals, influence, decisive moments.
- From there, he turns to one of the competition’s most intriguing debutants: Como. Their number 10, Nico Paz, is “at the heart of everything they do with the ball” in what is their first Champions League campaign. Cesc Fabregas, on the touchline, has turned them into a side people want to watch. Paz, Laurens says, is “very much in the making” but destined to be “a top player very soon”.
- Then comes a man he labels “Mr Champions League”: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. Two sensational seasons at PSG have turned the Georgian into one of the most feared wide players in Europe. From that left flank he can cut in, go outside, finish with either foot. He scores great goals, he thrills, and Laurens has him firmly in the Ballon d’Or conversation. “He's one of those players that gets you on the edge of your sofa. He's the guy.”
- Lens return to the Champions League after pushing PSG all the way in Ligue 1, and at the heart of their rise stands Ismaelo Ganiou. A 21-year-old centre-back, strong, quick, comfortable on the ball, he has the profile Premier League clubs crave. Laurens expects him to leave at the end of the season for “a big Premier League club”.
- The fifth name is a revival story. Since leaving Aston Villa for Roma, Donyell Malen has been “incredible”, scoring almost a goal a game as a lone striker for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side. Roma’s return to the Champions League brings their attacking football back onto the main stage, and Laurens believes Malen will hit his best level again under the bright lights.
Kane’s campaign, Yamal’s hunger, Odegaard’s moment
Balague’s watchlist has a different flavour.
- For Bayern Munich, Harry Kane is not just a signing; he is on “a campaign to win the Ballon d'Or”. The fit is obvious. Bayern’s style “suits him greatly”, and Balague does not expect his level to drop. Goals in Germany, goals in Europe, and an individual prize in his sights.
- In Barcelona, teenage sensation Lamine Yamal is “hungry for more” and already targeting the Champions League as his next stage. Flick wants a team that defends high and with passion, a platform where Yamal can “shine” in transition and in tight spaces.
- Kvaratskhelia reappears here too. Balague is convinced the Georgian has “another level” to reach. With PSG likely to go far, he sees Kvaratskhelia as the man who will “rescue the team and win big games”. For him as well, the Ballon d’Or feels like a matter of time.
- Shakhtar’s conveyor belt of Brazilian talent rolls on, and 20-year-old Kaua Elias could be the next to turn into a major European transfer. Balague points to the club’s long tradition of discovering and exporting stars; Elias may be the next name to join that list.
- Then there is Martin Odegaard. Last season was stunted by injuries; this one has started with a different tone. The Norwegian has opened strongly, and Balague sees a player ready to “dominate games” again for an Arsenal side that now believes in itself. His team “will need him to do that”, and he “seems ready to take that leadership”.
Fabregas’ Como, ambitious underdogs and a Norwegian wildcard
Beyond the headline acts, Balague has a clear affection for some of the competition’s outsiders.
“I love what Fabregas is doing with Como,” he says, praising the Spaniard’s decision to stay despite “interesting offers” over the past two years. The freedom Fabregas enjoys – the ability to “get it wrong and nothing will happen” – has allowed him to push his ideas without fear. He has “swum against the tide” and now stands “very much in the train of modern football, and at the front”. Balague expects Como to reach the knock-out stages, a significant feat for a debutant.
LASK, who knocked out Celtic, have already shown “a big competitive level”. For their first Champions League campaign, Balague sets a realistic bar: a home win somewhere, a respectable points total. That, he says, would be a fair outcome. Progress to the knock-outs, though, looks unlikely.
From Azerbaijan, Sabah arrive with a project “based on organisation” but a brutal draw. Trips to Arsenal and Manchester United, home games against Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund – it is a baptism of fire. Balague believes they will spring “one or two surprising results”, yet not enough to go through.
Then there is Viking. Bayern, Atletico, Napoli and Aston Villa stand in their path, but Balague refuses to write Norwegian football off. The country is “full of clever, competitive coaches, players and teams”, and he sees a route, however narrow, for Viking to reach the knock-out rounds.
The Champions League, then, returns with its usual blend of giants, dreamers and emerging stars. PSG hunt history, Arsenal hunt redemption, Barcelona hunt their old supremacy. Somewhere in that mix, the next champion waits.
