Dan Hooker has seen enough of how the UFC does business to make a blunt prediction: Paddy Pimblett, not the most deserving contender on paper, will be the man standing across from Justin Gaethje in the next lightweight title fight.
To Hooker, it’s simple. Star power beats merit. Every time.
From Favored Prospect to Hunter Again
Pimblett’s first crack at Gaethje came in January, headlining UFC 324. The build-up painted the Scouser as the heir apparent, the betting favorite, the one the promotion had quietly been grooming for a run at gold.
Gaethje tore that script to pieces.
He outworked Pimblett over five rounds, took a unanimous decision, and walked away with the interim lightweight belt and a ticket to then-champion Ilia Topuria. Pimblett walked away with his first real derailment on the big stage, in a fight many expected him to win.
Gaethje then did what Gaethje does best: he smashed expectations.
At UFC Freedom 250, he stunned Topuria in a performance that flipped the division on its head. The interim belt became the real thing, and the chaos king of 155 lbs finally sat on the throne outright.
Pimblett, meanwhile, refused to fade into the background. At UFC 329, he produced the kind of answer the UFC loves. Under pressure, against the dangerous Benoit Saint Denis, he didn’t just survive. He submitted him. Clean. Emphatic. A statement win that shoved him straight back into the title conversation.
And that, Hooker believes, is all the opening the UFC needs.
“They’re Just Sliding Paddy In”
Speaking on Submission Radio, Hooker didn’t dance around it.
“He’s the champ, he can do whatever the (expletive) he wants… Some champs can’t, but Justin Gaethje can… For sure they’re just sliding Paddy Pimblett into a title fight, that’s probably what they’re gonna do,” Hooker said.
That’s the crux of it. Gaethje has the belt, the violence résumé, and the leverage. Pimblett has the name, the following, and now a fresh, highlight-reel submission over a surging contender. The UFC has a ready-made storyline: the loud, polarizing Scouser chasing redemption against the man who handed him his biggest setback.
Fans may groan. The numbers won’t.
Merit vs Marketability
On pure sporting logic, the path is clearer than the politics will ever allow.
The co-main event of UFC 331 — Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy — carries a strong claim to the next shot. The winner will have done it the hard way, grinding through the ranks, stacking results, ticking every “deserves it” box.
There’s also Charles Oliveira lurking, resurgent and dangerous, riding a two-fight win streak and still very much a nightmare matchup for anyone at 155. A rematch between Oliveira and Gaethje would be easy to sell and even easier to justify.
Those are the merit options.
But this is the UFC, and the promotion has spent years nudging Pimblett toward the top of the bill. He’s one of the biggest names in the division, a magnet for attention in a weight class already loaded with talent and storylines. When he stumbled against Gaethje at UFC 324, it felt like a misfire in the company’s long-term plan. His win over Saint Denis felt like a course correction.
So the equation becomes less “Who earned it most?” and more “Who moves the needle the fastest?”
Hooker thinks he already knows the answer.
If Gaethje wants Pimblett, if the UFC wants Pimblett, if the numbers check out, then Tsarukyan, Ruffy, Oliveira and the rest of the pack may find themselves watching from the sidelines as Paddy walks back into a title fight that many in the sport will say he hasn’t yet earned.
The only real question now is whether the UFC chooses the rankings… or the roar.
