Lewis Hamilton knows exactly what Monza means to Ferrari. He also knows cold numbers, and they have been brutal this season on the straights.
So when he calls Ferrari’s new power unit a “step forward but not the whole amount we need”, it lands as both a warning and a promise.
Ferrari roll the dice at home
Ferrari have chosen their home grand prix to bolt on the second and final engine upgrade allowed this year, gambling that fresh power can turn their corner-speed strength into a complete package at the Temple of Speed.
On balance, the red car has been razor-sharp in the turns in 2024. The problem has come when the track opens up. On the straights, Hamilton says, they have been handing away nearly half a second a lap.
“Every little helps,” he said. “Until this point of the year, even last race, we were losing 0.4secs a lap on the straights. We have carried that deficit.
This is a step forward. It is not the whole amount we need but we knew that was the case. I strongly believe we have what it takes to win.”
Hamilton and Charles Leclerc have one win apiece this season. The Briton, though, trails championship leader Kimi Antonelli by 59 points. If Ferrari are going to turn Monza into a launchpad rather than a celebration in isolation, this upgrade has to bite immediately.
Chasing a first in Ferrari red
Hamilton has won almost everywhere, in almost everything. Yet Monza in Ferrari colours remains unexplored territory.
“To win this weekend, the whole collective has to come together. Everything has to flow from the beginning,” he said.
“There is a first ahead of me, in the sense of if I was to win I go into new territory winning for the first time in Ferrari at Monza. It would be phenomenal.
The pressure’s high. You want to do it for the team. Many of them will come to this race. The tifosi come out in huge numbers with a passion that’s unmatched.
“And my mum’s here. I don’t think she’s been to Monza, and certainly not with Ferrari. I wanted her to experience this and bring any lucky dust she can bring.”
It is classic Monza theatre: a global star chasing a personal milestone, in front of a fanbase that treats this circuit like a cathedral. The new engine is one part of the story. Emotion, expectation and execution will decide the rest.
Antonelli starts at the back – but not out of the picture
Ferrari’s cause is helped by misfortune and strategy on the other side of the title fight. Antonelli will start from the rear after exceeding his allocation of engine components, a penalty Mercedes always knew would land after reliability problems earlier in the year.
The team picked Monza deliberately. If you must take a hit, you do it on a circuit where straight-line speed and a fresh power unit can help you slice back through the field, and where you can better manage your engine pool for the run-in.
Hamilton is under no illusion that Antonelli’s Sunday is ruined.
“There is big gap between the top teams and the rest,” he said. “Kimi will start from the back but with the power he has, and the performance he has, he should slide through that pack pretty easy and it’s probably why they chose this race to do that.
“So achieving eighth or sixth should be relatively easy. We have to focus on maximising our weekend and try and take the energy from the tifosi to hopefully push us to the front.”
Mercedes expect George Russell to serve a similar penalty, most likely in Azerbaijan in two races’ time, spreading the pain rather than doubling it up in Italy.
Antonelli, for his part, is trying to turn the setback into freedom.
“I am very much looking forward to this weekend despite starting from the back. I will be able to enjoy it more than I did previously and hopefully we will still be able to have a good race,” he said.
“In some ways it helps to release pressure, although I would very much rather fight for pole and start at the front.
“It makes me a bit more relaxed going into the weekend. I think this track can be very good for us but we have to take into account that McLaren, Ferrari, even Red Bull can be good this weekend.”
A different kind of Monza sprint
Antonelli also lifted the lid on why Monza will feel so unusual for the drivers this year. The hybrid units will be “energy starved” for more of the lap than almost anywhere else.
With long straights and fewer heavy braking zones, there is less opportunity to harvest energy under braking and more time spent without full battery deployment. The result? Cars that reach a speed, then sit there.
Antonelli expects the figures to tell that story: speed flat-lining on the straights rather than tailing off dramatically, the hybrid systems working at their limits. He still believes the picture will be “better than many expected”.
That technical backdrop will shape the weekend. Slipstreaming is set to become a weapon in both qualifying and the race, as drivers hunt to save energy and punch a hole through the air. Teams will choreograph runs. Some will get it right; others will be left fuming in traffic.
Overtaking will still be possible, Antonelli insists, but it will demand craft. “There are other tracks where it is possible to overtake but this one is very energy starved and there are a lot of places where you can race differently and it gives us the best chance to climb through the field,” he said.
For Hamilton and Ferrari, that could cut both ways. The new engine should close part of the straight-line gap, yet a slipstream-heavy race could invite chaos, strategy gambles and late lunges into the Rettifilo.
Ferrari have brought power. Monza will supply the pressure. Whether that “step forward” is enough to carry Hamilton onto that famous top step in red, in front of the tifosi and his mother, is the question that will stalk every lap this weekend.
