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Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

St. James' Park hosts an intriguing Premier League clash on 19 September 2026 as Newcastle welcome newly resurgent Hull City. With both sides unbeaten in their last three league outings, this early-season fixture has the feel of a genuine test of credentials rather than a routine matchday.

Newcastle come into Round 5 sitting 12th with 5 points from four games. They have been entertaining but fragile, scoring 7 and conceding 8, and are still searching for a first home win after two draws on Tyneside. Hull City, by contrast, have started impressively: 4th in the table on 8 points, unbeaten, and boasting the joint-best defensive record so far with just 2 goals conceded.

For fans and bettors looking for a detailed Newcastle vs Hull City prediction, this matchup offers a classic contrast of styles: Newcastle’s open, attacking approach against Hull’s compact 5-4-1 and disciplined defensive structure. The historical head-to-head adds another layer, with several high-scoring meetings and dramatic encounters in both league and cup.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Stats

  • Newcastle are 12th with 5 points from 4 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat), scoring 7 and conceding 8.
  • The last meeting on 27 July 2024 saw Newcastle win 2-0 away at The MKM Stadium in a club friendly.
  • In Premier League 2026, Hull City have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches, conceding only 2 goals (tournament statistics).

Newcastle vs Hull City — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 12 vs 4
  • Points: 5 vs 8
  • Goals For: 7 vs 5
  • Goals Against: 8 vs 2
  • Clean Sheets: Newcastle 1 vs Hull City 3 (tournament statistics)

After four rounds, Newcastle’s mid-table position reflects a mixed start. They have been involved in open contests, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match across 4 fixtures. At home they have drawn both games, scoring and conceding 4. The form line of LDWD in the standings underlines their inconsistency but also hints at resilience after an opening defeat.

Hull City’s early campaign has been far more controlled. Sitting 4th with a WWDD record, they are unbeaten and have built their start on defensive solidity: just 2 goals conceded in 4 games, with 3 clean sheets. Their 5-4-1 setup has been used in all four league fixtures and is clearly functioning, while a goal difference of +3 (5 scored, 2 conceded) shows they are efficient rather than explosive in attack.

Newcastle vs Hull City Key Matchups

Y. Wissa vs M. Belloumi

Newcastle’s most influential attacking contributor in the disciplinary charts is Yoane Wissa, who has started all 4 league games, logging 351 minutes. Officially listed as a midfielder, he has 1 goal and 1 assist, with 7 shots (2 on target) and 4 key passes from 64 total passes at 68% accuracy. He is heavily involved in duels (61 contested, 27 won) and draws plenty of fouls (11), which makes him a constant nuisance between the lines and around the box.

Hull City’s standout creator and finisher is Mohamed Elbachir Belloumi. Across 4 appearances and 315 minutes, he has 2 goals and 1 assist, making him directly involved in 60% of Hull’s 5 league goals so far. He has taken 8 shots (3 on target), created 3 key passes, and completed 3 of 6 dribbles. His all-round midfield contribution is notable: 10 tackles, 3 blocks, 9 interceptions, and 15 duels won from 32 contested. This two-way impact makes Belloumi the key player Newcastle must contain.

O. McBurnie vs Newcastle back line

While not a pure goalscorer yet this season, Oli McBurnie is central to Hull City’s attacking structure. In 4 starts and 352 minutes, he has 1 assist, 6 shots (3 on target), and 5 key passes from 69 completed passes. His aerial and physical presence is highlighted by 74 duels contested and 36 won, plus 9 fouls drawn. He also presses and defends from the front, with 3 tackles and significant involvement out of possession.

Newcastle’s defence, which has conceded 8 goals in 4 games (2.0 per match), will be tested by McBurnie’s ability to pin centre-backs and bring midfield runners like Belloumi into play. With their biggest away defeat in the recent sample being 4-1 and home matches averaging 2 goals conceded, handling McBurnie in the box and on set pieces will be critical if Newcastle are to avoid another high-concession outing.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

These clubs have produced some memorable contests over the past decade, including high-scoring league games and a dramatic cup tie decided on penalties. Recent meetings have often been played at Hull, but St. James' Park has also seen its share of drama between the sides.

  • 27 July 2024: Hull City 0-2 Newcastle (Friendlies Clubs)
  • 29 November 2016: Hull City 1-1 Newcastle (League Cup, Hull City won 3-1 on penalties)
  • 31 January 2015: Hull City 0-3 Newcastle (Premier League)
  • 20 September 2014: Newcastle 2-2 Hull City (Premier League)
  • 1 March 2014: Hull City 1-4 Newcastle (Premier League)

Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction

Stats suggest a clash of profiles: Newcastle are more expansive, with higher attacking indices but a porous defence, while Hull City are compact, structured, and very hard to break down. The comparison model tilts defensive and Poisson indices strongly towards Hull City (defence 80 vs 20, Poisson 62 vs 38), though the overall total index is close (Newcastle 52.3 vs Hull 47.7), reflecting Newcastle’s attacking upside and home advantage.

Probability-wise, the prediction model gives Newcastle only a 10% chance of victory, with both the draw and Hull City win rated at 45% each. That implies a strong lean towards Hull avoiding defeat, in line with their unbeaten WWDD league form and 3 clean sheets in 4 matches. However, bookmakers see it differently: home win odds range roughly from 1.53 to 1.63, implying about a 61–65% chance for Newcastle, while Hull’s away win sits between about 4.76 and 5.49 (≈18–21%), with the draw around 3.84–4.52 (≈22–26%).

The most balanced view is that Newcastle’s attacking threat and home crowd should create chances, but Hull’s structure and Belloumi’s form make them very live for a result. A tight, tactical contest with limited goals feels more likely than a shootout.

Predicted Score: Newcastle 1-1 Hull City

Newcastle Recent Form

Newcastle’s recent Premier League form is mixed but trending slightly upward. Their standings form line of LDWD reflects an opening defeat followed by a draw, a win, and then another draw. Across these 4 matches they have scored 7 and conceded 8, with no clean sheets at home and one away. Offensively they average 1.8 goals per game, but the 2.0 goals conceded per match underline their defensive vulnerability.

Hull City Recent Form

Hull City arrive in excellent shape with a WWDD record in the league. They opened with back-to-back wins before drawing their last two fixtures, staying unbeaten and climbing to 4th. Their attack is modest but efficient at 1.3 goals per game, while defensively they are outstanding, conceding just 0.5 goals per match and keeping 3 clean sheets. This blend of solidity and selective attacking threat makes them a difficult opponent home or away.

Newcastle Possible Starting Lineup

GK: N. Pope; Defenders: S. Botman, D. Burn, T. Livramento, L. Hall; Midfielders: Joelinton, Nico González, J. Willock, J. Murphy, Y. Wissa; Forwards: A. Elanga.

Newcastle have consistently used a 4-2-3-1 structure this season, and the available squad points towards a similar setup again. Nick Pope provides experience in goal, with Sven Botman and Dan Burn likely anchoring the back line alongside full-backs Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall. In midfield, the physical presence of Joelinton and the technical qualities of Nico González and Joe Willock offer balance, while wide options such as Jacob Murphy and Anthony Elanga can stretch Hull’s 5-4-1. Yoane Wissa is a key attacking outlet, combining work rate, ball-carrying and end product, and could operate either centrally or from the flank depending on the game plan.

Hull City Possible Starting Lineup

GK: J. Butland; Defenders: L. Coyle, J. Egan, S. Ajayi, C. Hughes, R. Giles; Midfielders: H. Morita, E. Matazo, A. Ömür, M. Belloumi; Forward: O. McBurnie.

Hull City have used a 5-4-1 in all four league fixtures, and the squad list supports another compact, defence-first shape. Jack Butland is the likely starter in goal, protected by a back five that could feature experienced centre-backs John Egan and Semi Ajayi, with Ryan Giles and Lewie Coyle providing width from wing-back. In midfield, Hidemasa Morita and Eliot Matazo can anchor the centre, freeing a creative pair of Abdülkadir Ömür and Mohamed Belloumi to link with lone striker Oli McBurnie. This structure allows Hull to stay narrow and compact without the ball, then break through Belloumi’s ball-carrying and McBurnie’s hold-up play.

Newcastle Team News

No significant absences reported.

Hull City Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Newcastle:

  • None reported.

Hull City:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Newcastle vs Hull City

Exactly 3 distinct tips from different markets:

  • Result Tip: Hull City or Draw (Double Chance). The prediction model rates Newcastle’s win chance at just 10%, with both draw and Hull win at 45% each, while Hull are unbeaten (WWDD) and defensively strong. Despite bookmakers pricing Newcastle as clear favourites at around 1.53–1.63, the underlying form and defensive metrics suggest value in opposing a home win. Look for double chance Hull/Draw in the market, typically priced between the home and straight-away odds.
  • Goals Tip: Under 2.5 Goals. Hull’s matches average 1.8 total goals (5 scored, 2 conceded in 4 games), and they have kept 3 clean sheets. Newcastle’s attack is lively, but Hull’s defensive indices (defence 80 vs Newcastle’s 20 in the comparison block) and their 5-4-1 setup point towards a tight encounter. With both sides showing a tendency towards low-scoring contests in the early rounds, under 2.5 goals should be a serious consideration; check the main goals market for exact odds.
  • Value Tip: M. Belloumi to Score or Assist. Belloumi has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances, with 8 shots (3 on target) and 3 key passes, making him Hull City’s primary attacking threat. His involvement in build-up and set pieces increases his chance of a direct goal contribution. Player performance markets (anytime scorer or goal/assist combos) may offer attractive prices given his central role in a side that does not score heavily but relies on his quality in decisive moments.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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