The Nations League returns to Portugal with a familiar backdrop: a trophy in the cabinet, pressure on the pitch, and Cristiano Ronaldo still at the heart of it all.
The holders and most decorated side in the competition’s short history open their 2026-27 campaign on Thursday night against a depleted Wales, with a new man in the dugout but the same demand ringing around the country – win, and win well.
Jesus steps into the spotlight
This is Jorge Jesus’s first competitive match in charge of the national team after replacing Roberto Martinez on July 10. He inherits a side that had grown used to cruising through games under Martinez, right up until the jolt of the 2026 World Cup.
Portugal’s run in that tournament ended with a 1-0 defeat to eventual champions Spain in the last 16, their first loss since November 2025. One bad night, but a brutal one. The sense of unfinished business hangs over this group.
It is in the Nations League that Portugal have consistently found their edge. They won the inaugural edition in 2018-19, beating Netherlands 1-0 in the final, then reclaimed the crown in 2024-25 by edging Spain on penalties. No one has lifted this trophy more often.
Now comes Group 4 of League A: Wales, Denmark and Norway, home and away, with a quarter-final spot on offer. Wales at home is the curtain-raiser; a trip to Norway closes the month, before October brings Denmark away and Norway back in Lisbon.
For Jesus, it is a ready-made stage. For Portugal, it is a chance to reassert their status as the competition’s benchmark.
Ronaldo, still the reference point
The headline from Jesus’s first squad was inevitable. Ronaldo is still in.
At 41, with 146 goals for his country already, the captain is not expected to ease his way in. He is set to start, leading a front line that should again be built around his presence and penalty-box instincts.
His international future looked in real doubt after that loss to Spain at the World Cup, when questions about succession grew louder than ever. Yet he remains. Not as a nostalgic cameo, but as a central figure in the XI.
Behind him, the structure feels settled rather than experimental. Diogo Costa is in line to keep goal. In midfield, Vitinha, Joao Neves and Bruno Fernandes are expected to form a technically sharp, hard-running trio. Out wide and between the lines, Pedro Neto and Joao Felix offer the angles, the dribbles, the chaos.
On paper, it is a side built to dominate the ball and suffocate opponents in their own half. On the pitch, it now has to reflect Jesus’s imprint: aggressive, front-foot, unforgiving.
Wales climb back up, but arrive wounded
Wales arrive in League A again, but the path here has been uneven.
They missed out on the 2026 World Cup, falling to Bosnia-Herzegovina in the play-off semi-finals in March. That failure still stings. Since then, Craig Bellamy’s team have tried to reset with three friendlies: draws against Northern Ireland and Ghana, then a 2-1 defeat to Romania.
Promotion from League B in 2024-25 restored some momentum. Across all their Nations League campaigns, Wales have put together 10 wins, five draws and seven defeats from 22 games – a solid record for a nation constantly rebuilding its core.
This time, though, the schedule offers little comfort. Denmark away on September 27, Norway at home on October 1, and Denmark at home on October 4 follow this trip to Portugal. It is a brutal run for a squad already stretched.
And now the injuries have bitten hard.
Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead and Karl Darlow have all withdrawn, depriving Bellamy of creativity, depth and experience. David Cornell of Leicester City, Joe Taylor of Huddersfield Town and Reading’s Charlie Savage have been drafted in to fill the gaps.
They join a list of absentees that already included Joe Rodon, Dylan Lawlor, Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies. For a side that relies on cohesion and work rate, that many missing pieces hurts.
Bellamy’s options and the Welsh threat
Despite the absences, Wales will not arrive just to survive.
Daniel James, David Brooks and Brennan Johnson are all set to start in the attacking third, with James potentially operating through the middle. His pace in transition, Johnson’s direct running and Brooks’s intelligence between the lines give Wales at least one clear route into the game: win the ball, break fast, punish any Portuguese complacency.
Ethan Ampadu and Jordan James are expected to anchor midfield, tasked with disrupting Portugal’s rhythm and feeding those counters. Behind them, Danny Ward should start in goal, with Neco Williams, Ben Cabango, Rhys Norrington-Davies and Jay Dasilva forming the back four.
It is a side that can bite if the game becomes stretched. The problem for Wales is getting the match on their terms for long enough to matter.
History leans one way
The record between these two nations is sparse but weighted.
They have met only four times. Wales’s solitary win came in a friendly back in May 1951. The only competitive clash remains etched in modern tournament memory: Euro 2016, the semi-final in Lyon, where Portugal won 2-0 thanks to goals from Ronaldo and Nani on their way to lifting the European Championship.
That night felt like the launch of a golden chapter for Portugal. This one feels like the attempt to extend it.
Likely lineups
Portugal are not expected to spring surprises. A probable XI:
Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, J Neves; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ronaldo.
Wales, patched up but committed, could go with:
Ward; N Williams, Cabango, Norrington-Davies, Dasilva; Ampadu, J James; Brooks, Thomas, Johnson; D James.
A heavy favourite, a heavy burden
Form lines point clearly in one direction. Portugal’s recent run reads WDWDWL across all competitions, with that lone defeat coming against the world champions. Wales, by contrast, come in with WWLDDL, a sequence that underlines their inconsistency.
The gulf in depth, especially with Wales missing key figures, is obvious. Portugal have quality in almost every position and options to change the game from the bench. Wales will lean on spirit, structure and the odd moment of individual brilliance.
The expectation is simple: Portugal to dominate, Portugal to win. A 3-1 home victory would reflect both their attacking firepower and the likelihood that Wales, for all their problems, can still land a punch.
For Jesus, it is the first real marker of his reign. For Ronaldo, it is another night under the lights, another chance to stretch a record that already feels untouchable.
For Portugal, it is about more than three points. It is about proving that, even with a new man on the touchline and an ageing icon up front, they remain the team everyone else in the Nations League has to chase.
