The second week at Flushing Meadows has a different sound to it. The buzz dulls into a tense hum, the day sessions thin out, and every match on the board suddenly feels like a reckoning.
The US Open has reached the quarterfinals in both singles draws. Eight women, eight men, two days to carve the fields down to the last four.
Sabalenka’s streak meets its first real storm
Aryna Sabalenka has spent the first week treating the women’s draw like a personal training block. Four matches, four straight‑set wins, barely a wobble. The No. 1 seed is hunting a third consecutive US Open crown, chasing a piece of history last owned by Serena Williams from 2012 to 2014.
Now comes the first real test of that ambition.
On Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. Eastern, Sabalenka faces No. 6 seed Linda Noskova, the current Wimbledon champion and the first opponent in this tournament with both the weapons and the nerve to punch back consistently. Sabalenka’s power has bullied most of the field; Noskova’s timing and grass‑court breakthrough suggest she won’t just absorb it.
The prediction is ruthless: Noskova to knock out the two‑time defending champion, and in the process help pry the No. 1 ranking from Sabalenka’s grip. If that happens, the entire women’s hierarchy shifts in a single afternoon.
American hopes split between old wounds and new belief
The United States has waited a long time for a homegrown women’s champion to define this era. It might now have two.
Jessica Pegula, the No. 3 seed, carries the scar tissue of a US Open final defeat to Sabalenka two years ago. That loss hardened her, and this year’s path gives her a chance to turn that pain into a deep run. She takes on No. 26 Emma Navarro on Tuesday night at 7 p.m., an all‑American clash with contrasting stories: Pegula, the established contender, against Navarro, the rising disruptor.
Pegula is tipped to be too solid, too seasoned. The expectation is that she “dispatches” Navarro, moves through, and earns a semifinal date with Noskova. No Sabalenka rematch. A different kind of test instead.
Then there is Coco Gauff, the player who has already changed the energy around American tennis. She lifted her first Grand Slam singles trophy here in 2023, then proved it was no one‑off by adding the French Open title in 2025. Every time she walks onto Arthur Ashe Stadium now, it feels like a coronation in waiting.
On Wednesday, Gauff faces No. 5 seed Mirra Andreeva, the teenager who won this year’s French Open and has announced herself as a rival for the next decade, not just the next fortnight. It’s a meeting of back‑to‑back Roland Garros champions, a clash of two players who already know how to own a big stage.
Gauff is backed to prevail, to lean on the memory of last year’s run and the roar of a crowd that has adopted her as its own. If the script holds, she will then meet Elena Rybakina in a blockbuster semifinal: Gauff, the defending US Open champion, against the newly top‑ranked Rybakina, the reigning Australian Open winner. That’s not just a match; that’s a statement about where the sport is headed.
Rybakina and Zheng chase their opening
On the other half of the women’s draw, No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina faces Qinwen Zheng on Wednesday. Rybakina has quietly built a résumé that demands respect—major titles, a new No. 1 ranking, and a game that travels to every surface.
Zheng, one of the most dynamic talents from the next wave, stands in her way. The prediction leans toward Rybakina, whose serve and baseline weight usually decide these tight, late‑tournament encounters. If she holds her nerve, she walks straight into that potential showdown with Gauff.
Men’s draw: chaos, opportunity, and one familiar favorite
The men’s event has veered off script. Only three of the top 10 seeds even survived to the fourth round. That kind of chaos usually opens the door for one thing: a proven champion.
Carlos Alcaraz fits that role perfectly.
The two‑time US Open winner (2022, 2025) returns to the quarterfinals as the clear standard‑bearer of the field, even as the bracket around him crumbles. On Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m., the No. 2 seed faces No. 8 Ben Shelton, one of three Americans to crash this stage.
Shelton brings thunder—big lefty serve, big personality, big shots—but Alcaraz has seen it all in New York and usually bends matches to his will. The call is firm: Alcaraz to advance, Shelton to leave with credit and the sense that his time here is coming, just not yet.
The American storyline doesn’t end there.
Tiafoe, Michelsen and a guaranteed US semifinalist
For all the nostalgia around Andy Roddick’s 2003 title, American men’s tennis has spent two decades living in its shadow. This week offers something different: three home players in the quarterfinals and a guaranteed semifinalist.
No. 11 seed Frances Tiafoe meets unseeded Alex Michelsen on Tuesday at 1 p.m., a match that pits Tiafoe’s flair and experience against Michelsen’s fearless surge through the draw. Tiafoe has already tasted the final weekend in New York, reaching the semifinals in 2022 and 2024. He knows how the court sounds at night, how the pressure feels when the stadium closes in.
Michelsen has nothing to lose. That can be dangerous. Still, the prediction backs Tiafoe to shut down the longshot run and book a third US Open semifinal. For the American crowd, it’s a familiar face carrying the flag deeper into the second week.
Zverev cruises, Khachanov crashes the party
On Wednesday, the top seed steps back into view. Alexander Zverev, the No. 1 seed, has so far navigated the draw with a calm, almost mechanical efficiency. His quarterfinal opponent, Botic van de Zandschulp, arrives battered: five sets, three tiebreaks on Monday just to make it this far.
That kind of effort leaves a mark. The expectation is that Zverev exploits it, “cruising” past an exhausted opponent and into the semifinals with minimal fuss.
The other quarterfinal on that side looks very different.
Unseeded Karen Khachanov has ripped through the draw, collecting upsets and momentum in equal measure. He now faces No. 28 seed Alexander Blockx on Wednesday, a match between two men who have already overachieved on paper but don’t look remotely satisfied.
Khachanov is tipped to produce one more jolt, to take out Blockx and set up a semifinal with Zverev. It would be a clash of styles and temperaments: Zverev’s controlled aggression against Khachanov’s heavy, surging baseline game.
Two days, eight matches, and every one of them loaded with consequence. History for Sabalenka or a changing of the guard? Another American breakthrough or another year of waiting? By the time the lights go down on Wednesday night, the answers will be written into the last four names left standing.
