The lights go up in Flushing Meadows on Sunday, and with them the stakes. The final Grand Slam of the year opens not just a path to a trophy, but a scramble for the sport’s most coveted real estate: the No. 1 ranking.
Sabalenka under siege, Americans surging
Serena Williams will be on site only for doubles, a reminder of an era that has passed. The women’s draw, though, is anything but empty.
Aryna Sabalenka arrives as top seed and two-time defending US Open champion, clinging to the WTA No. 1 spot with three rivals closing in. Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff all have a mathematical route to the summit depending on how the fortnight unfolds.
It’s a loaded field, but the USA TODAY panel sees a clear storyline emerging: New York belongs to the Americans.
Scooby Axson, Cydney Henderson and Danielle Lerner all back a hard-court surge from Gauff and Pegula, fresh off their meeting in the Cincinnati Open final. Each projects both Americans into the semifinals, riding that form straight into Arthur Ashe Stadium’s biggest nights.
The obstacle most of them see first is familiar and formidable: Iga Swiatek. The five-time major champion and 2022 US Open winner appears in every predicted semifinal, set to collide with Gauff in a blockbuster. Axson believes that if Gauff’s serve holds up, she beats Swiatek. Lerner leans the same way, pointing to Gauff’s “undeniable” momentum and big-serving confidence.
Rybakina, nominally the closest challenger to Sabalenka in the rankings, enters under a cloud. All three writers flag the Achilles soreness that forced her out of Cincinnati. None expect her to last beyond the quarterfinals, if she gets that far.
Sabalenka, fighting to defend both her title and her ranking, doesn’t inspire much trust either. Henderson and Lerner question her mental edge, Henderson predicting that the pressure of protecting No. 1 will crack her in a semifinal against Pegula.
The other name forcing her way into the picture is Linda Noskova. The Czech, who claimed Wimbledon in July and headlines a deep group from Czechia with seven women in the top 50, is tipped by Axson and Lerner to reach the semifinals. Lerner has her stopping Pegula’s run there; Axson sees Pegula dismissing her in straight sets to reach a second US Open final.
On the women’s champion, the panel splits.
Axson envisions an all-American final and a breakthrough for Pegula, lifting her first US Open title and soaring to No. 1 in the world, a landmark moment for Buffalo’s favorite tennis export.
Henderson and Lerner side with Gauff. Henderson points to a six-match win streak and a ruthless Cincinnati title as proof the 20-year-old is peaking at the right moment despite a brutal projected path. Lerner goes even further, calling for Gauff to power to a third career major and second US Open crown behind a dominant serve.
Either way, the message is clear: the experts expect the women’s story in New York to be written in American ink.
Men’s draw blown wide open
The men’s tournament opens with a vacuum at the very top. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury. That absence changes everything.
Alexander Zverev, the top seed and reigning French Open champion, suddenly fronts the field. Carlos Alcaraz returns from a four‑month injury layoff. Felix Auger-Aliassime, seeded third, is still chasing his first major final. Novak Djokovic, seeded fourth and stuck on 24 majors, stares at another shot at No. 25.
Behind them, the American men see daylight.
Axson circles Taylor Fritz as the home player best positioned to finally punch through, saying the tournament “is really suited” for him. His run, though, stops at Zverev in the semis in Axson’s bracket, the German’s weight of experience and shotmaking too much again.
Djokovic, written off at your own risk for a decade, still commands respect. Axson has him pushing deep into the second week before running into youth in the form of Arthur Fils. The 22-year-old Frenchman, fresh off an eye-catching Cincinnati run, is Axson’s pick to blast into the top five and into the US Open final.
Henderson sees a different American seizing the moment. Ben Shelton, volatile but explosive, has bounced between a title in Montreal and an early exit in Cincinnati. New York, Henderson argues, will bring out his best. She has him riding the home energy into a semifinal against Djokovic, while Zverev battles Auger-Aliassime on the other side.
Lerner leans on star power. Her bracket delivers the heavyweight clash everyone will circle: Alcaraz versus Djokovic in a semifinal, despite Alcaraz’s lack of match play and Djokovic’s recent early hard-court exits. She also tips Fritz, seeded ninth, to carve a path to the last four, where Zverev again stands in his way.
From there, the predictions diverge sharply.
Axson doubles down on Fils. He puts the Frenchman into a final against Fritz and going all the way, arguing it’s time to talk about a new “big three” of Alcaraz, Sinner and Fils.
Henderson’s vision is even bolder for the home fans: Shelton not only reaches his first US Open final, he wins it, lifting his first Grand Slam title on home soil in front of a crowd that has waited decades for an American men’s champion.
Between a vulnerable No. 1 absent, a returning Alcaraz, a chasing Djokovic, and a hungry pack of Americans, the 2026 US Open does not arrive with a single, dominant favorite.
It arrives with a question: who dares to grab the chaos and turn it into a career-defining fortnight in New York?
