Aryna Sabalenka walks back into New York chasing ghosts and history at the same time.
No woman has owned Flushing Meadows three years running since Serena Williams strung together that ruthless stretch from 2012 to 2014. Sabalenka now stands on that same ledge: two US Open titles in her pocket, a three‑peat on the line, and a No. 1 ranking that suddenly feels fragile.
This is not the steamrolling Sabalenka of seasons past. By her standards, 2026 has been patchy. No Grand Slam title yet. Nearly 100 weeks at the top of the rankings under threat. Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff are not just names on a list; they are live threats closing in on her seat at the summit.
And this time, the draw is no ally.
Sabalenka’s path is littered with danger. Barbora Krejcikova looms as a possible third‑round opponent, Diana Shnaider as a potential hurdle in the fourth. Then comes a quarterfinal that could feature Linda Noskova, the 2026 Wimbledon champion. Sabalenka has chased a three‑peat before and been denied – Rybakina stopped her in Melbourne in 2025. The stakes in New York are even higher: legacy and ranking bound together in one fortnight.
While Sabalenka wrestles with history, the men’s draw has been cracked wide open.
Jannik Sinner, a central figure in the tournament’s recent past, is out injured. Carlos Alcaraz returns to singles after almost four months away. Between them they’ve taken three of the last four US Open titles, but this time the field senses a gap, a rare moment when the usual script might tear.
The main draw, released on August 27, sharpened that feeling. Some players saw a runway. Others saw a minefield.
Rybakina’s big chance – if her body holds
No one stands to gain more from this US Open than Elena Rybakina.
Reach the semifinals, and she becomes World No. 1 for the first time. That’s the equation. The complication is her body. Achilles soreness flared in Cincinnati, and she left with more questions than answers. She has not yet confirmed she will play.
If she does, the draw gives her room to breathe early. The two‑time Grand Slam champion opens against Thea Frodin and could see Darja Vidmanova in the second round – a manageable start and a chance to test that ankle under real pressure.
Then the temperature rises.
A potential third‑round clash with Maria Sakkari. A likely fourth‑round collision with Naomi Osaka, a two‑time US Open champion who knows this court better than most. Survive that, and Rybakina could run into Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals, the same Swiatek who beat her in the Canadian Open final earlier this month.
Rybakina has never been beyond the fourth round in New York. This time, the ceiling is higher than ever. So is the risk.
American men smell opportunity
The drought has become an annual drumbeat. No American man has lifted the US Open trophy since Andy Roddick in 2003. Every year the question returns. Every year, the answer has been the same.
This year feels different.
With Sinner sidelined and Alcaraz just returning, the men’s field has rarely looked so open. Six American men sit inside the world’s Top 25: Ben Shelton (No. 9), Taylor Fritz (No. 10), Frances Tiafoe (No. 12), Learner Tien (No. 15), Brandon Nakashima (No. 17) and Tommy Paul (No. 21). They are not just ranking fillers; they’re arriving with hard‑court form.
Fritz won in Washington, D.C. Shelton took the title in Montreal. Nakashima reached a final there, Tiafoe did the same in Cincinnati. The question that has hovered over the home hopes for two decades now lands with a sharper edge: is this the year one of them finally breaks through in New York?
Pegula’s window opens
Jessica Pegula has stopped hiding her ambitions. She told USA TODAY Sports her “goal is to win the tournament,” and the draw does little to discourage that.
She opens against Elena‑Gabriela Ruse, then will face the winner of Venus Williams vs. Sofia Kenin – a first‑round match heavy on history and intrigue. From there, the path remains navigable. A possible third‑round meeting with No. 31 seed Leylah Fernandez, then likely No. 16 Sorana Cirstea, a player Pegula leads 3–1 in their head‑to‑head.
The real tests should arrive in the second week. A quarterfinal could bring No. 7 Karolina Muchova or No. 9 Elina Svitolina. Beyond that, Sabalenka likely waits in the semifinals.
That matchup carries its own scars. Pegula lost her first Grand Slam final to Sabalenka at the 2024 US Open in straight sets, and fell to her again in last year’s semifinals. The draw gives Pegula a genuine shot at another deep run. Whether it gives her enough to flip that rivalry is another matter.
First‑round firecrackers
The schedule makers did not ease fans into this one.
On the men’s side, No. 10 seed Arthur Fils faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in a blockbuster opener. Fils arrives with fresh swagger after winning his first ATP Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, where he beat Frances Tiafoe in three sets in the final. Tsitsipas has not made it past the second round at any major this season, but his résumé still carries weight: two Grand Slam finals, at Roland Garros in 2021 and the Australian Open in 2023.
The women’s draw offers its own early drama. No. 20 seed Maja Chwalińska, the 2026 French Open finalist, meets American shot‑maker Taylor Townsend. Townsend has a habit of catching fire in New York, with two fourth‑round runs at the US Open, including last year. It’s the kind of first‑round match that can tilt an entire section of the draw.
Djokovic’s gauntlet
Novak Djokovic is 39, chasing a 25th Grand Slam title that would break the all‑time record for men or women. The number is historic. The route to it is brutal.
He opens against Mariano Navone, a first‑ever meeting that should allow him to feel his way into the tournament. After that, there is no easing in sight. Matteo Berrettini, a Wimbledon finalist in 2021, or three‑time major champion Stan Wawrinka could be waiting in the second round.
The third round could bring No. 27 Tomas Etcheverry. The fourth might feature No. 16 Brandon Nakashima or No. 23 Andrey Rublev, both dangerous on hard courts. Looming in the quarterfinals: No. 7 Daniil Medvedev, a former US Open champion and one of the few players who has repeatedly troubled Djokovic in New York.
Survive that, and the semifinal menu is no kinder – No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz, No. 8 Ben Shelton or No. 10 Arthur Fils all sit in that section. If Djokovic reaches the final, No. 1 Alexander Zverev could be the last obstacle.
For a man chasing one more record, this is as unforgiving a path as he has drawn in years.
Gauff’s brutal road
Calling Coco Gauff a loser in any draw feels harsh. She just lifted the 2026 Cincinnati Open trophy and walks into New York as one of the form players on tour.
The problem is her section.
In the second round, she could face Paula Badosa or Daria Kasatkina. Neither is seeded this year, but both have lived in the Top 10 and both carry the kind of experience that can ambush a favorite early. Badosa, in particular, has recent history against Gauff, having beaten her on grass in Berlin in June.
The third round could bring No. 28 Sara Bejlek, a quick rematch of their Cincinnati semifinal that Gauff won 6–4, 6–1 on her way to the title over Pegula. From there, the climb gets steeper.
In the fourth round, Gauff could run into No. 14 Iva Jovic or No. 17 Alexandra Eala. Reach the quarterfinals for a third time in New York, and she might see No. 5 Mirra Andreeva, the reigning French Open champion. Gauff owns their head‑to‑head 5–0, including a clay‑court win in the Italian Open quarterfinals this year, before Andreeva went on to win in Paris. On hard courts, they’ve met only once: Gauff’s 6–3, 6–2 win in the second round of the 2023 US Open.
There is another possible quarterfinal twist: fellow American Amanda Anisimova, the No. 10 seed and last year’s US Open finalist. Anisimova leads their rivalry 2–1.
Should Gauff survive all that, the semifinals offer no respite. No. 2 Elena Rybakina or No. 8 Iga Swiatek could be waiting. Rybakina owns major titles in Melbourne (2026) and at Wimbledon (2022). Swiatek has six Grand Slam singles trophies, including the 2022 US Open, and spent 125 weeks as World No. 1.
For Gauff, the draw reads like a test of everything she has become since her own US Open breakthrough.
Tiafoe’s gamble
Frances Tiafoe has always played New York with a certain electricity. His two Grand Slam semifinal runs, in 2022 and 2024, both came here. The city suits him.
This time, he arrives patched up.
Earlier this month he underwent surgery to remove a cyst on his right hand. Days later, he ignored medical advice and stepped onto the courts in Cincinnati. “They didn’t actually want me to play here ... but obviously every athlete’s stubborn,” he said after winning his semifinal. He pushed all the way to the final before losing 6–3, 1–6, 6–0 to Arthur Fils, taking a medical timeout during the match and then withdrawing from the US Open mixed doubles event.
The questions about his health are real. The draw offers a little mercy at the start. He opens against fellow American Martin Damm Jr., then could face Aleksandar Vukic in the second round, an Australian he already owns a winning record against.
After that, the comfort ends. No. 7 Daniil Medvedev lurks as a possible fourth‑round opponent. No. 4 Novak Djokovic could be waiting in the quarterfinals. No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz sits on the semifinal horizon.
For a player who has built some of his best memories in this stadium, the stakes feel as high as the risk.
Venus returns to the stage
Serena Williams lit up the mixed doubles draw with Carlos Alcaraz, reaching the quarterfinals and reminding everyone how her name still echoes in this city. Now, the spotlight swings to her sister.
Venus Williams, 46 years old and still refusing to walk away, will play her 26th US Open after receiving a wild card into the main draw. The reward? A first‑round meeting with a Grand Slam champion.
Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open winner, stands across the net. She knows how to win big matches on hard courts. Venus, by contrast, has struggled in recent singles outings, losing in the first round at last year’s US Open and again at the Australian Open earlier this year.
The draw is unforgiving. The moment is not. For a generation of fans, seeing Venus stride back onto Arthur Ashe Stadium will be enough.
Sabalenka’s chase for history. Rybakina’s shot at No. 1. Djokovic’s brutal march toward 25. A nation of American men sensing their best opening in years.
New York has a habit of turning expectation on its head. Who walks out of this US Open with their story rewritten?
